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We are pleased to share our June 2024
Economic outlook publication
Our report shares insights on the key economic dynamics of 2024, providing perspectives on their impact and implications for households and businesses, as well as the outlook for the country.
The significant economic reforms, which began in 2023 have continued to deepen in 2024 with increased fiscal, monetary and sectoral policy actions to drive economic growth and stability. These critical reforms are yielding some positive outcomes with increased government revenues, exports, capital imports and improved credit outlook for the country. These reforms have also led to pressure points that continue to weigh on the expected reform outcomes – Naira devaluation, rising inflation and interest rates. Our publication breaks down the impact of the reforms and provides an outlook for Nigeria's economy in the second half of 2024.
The report articulates three broad considerations for the government on how the impacts of these reforms can be better managed, and key considerations on how firms can better deal with and navigate these impacts. The report further delves into the impact of the economic outlook on businesses revenues, cost of goods sold, selling and administrative expenses and finance cost.
Key content in this report includes:
Economic context
A year of reforms to achieve the government agenda
Key considerations for government, households, and businesses
Economic outlook
- Economic context
- A year of reforms to achieve the government agenda
- Key considerations for governments and businesses
- Economic outlook for the second half of 2024
Economic context
Economic highlights of the new administration’s first year includes:
GDP growth rate: GDP grew by 2.98% in Q1 2024 compared to 2.31% recorded in Q1 2023. The growth in Q1 2024 was due to performance in the financial and insurance and mining and quarrying sectors.
Increase in headline inflation: Inflation increased from 22.41% in May 2023 to 33.95% in May 2024. The drivers include food, utilities and transportation inflation.
Increase in Monetary Policy Rate (MPR): CBN increasedMPR by 775 basis points from 18.5% to 26.25% between May 2023 and March 2024, in an attempt the curb the inflationary pressures
Financial stability and economic growth: Increased capital requirements for banks in March 2024 to support economic growth.
A year of reforms to achieve the government agenda
Some reforms in the last year of the current administration have yielded positive results. They include:
Government revenue: Federal Account Allocation Committee (FAAC) disbursements increased by 91.6% from ₦976 billion disbursed in May 2023 to ₦1.87 trillion in April 2024.
Country credit rating: Fitch Ratings revised its outlook on Nigeria's Long-Term Foreign-Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) from ‘Stable’ to ‘Positive’.
Oil and non-oil exports: Oil exports grew by 200.9% to ₦15.5 trillion in Q1 2024 from ₦5.15 trillion recorded in Q1 2023.
Capital importation: Foreign Direct Investments (FDIs) grew 114% from $86 million recorded in Q2 2023 to $184 million in Q4 2023.
However, pressure points like naira depreciation and increase in headline inflation continue to weigh on the expected reform outcomes. The impact may lead to corporate exits from industries and higher poverty levels for households.
Key considerations for governments and businesses
- For governments: Prioritise macro stability by addressing security, social and pressure points of inflation and exchange rate pressures.
- For businesses: Create a clear-eyed strategy by revisiting your strategy and be clear on your must-haves to win in the future – regardless of any economic scenario.
Economic outlook for the second half of 2024
- GDP may grow marginally by 2.9% on the back of sustained policy reforms albeit growth prospect Broad economic may be limited by elevated economic pressures.
- Fiscal sustainability concerns may remain slightly elevated given debt servicing costs (89% of the budgeted fiscal deficit is to be financed by new borrowings).
- A marginal decline in inflation to 29.5% by year end, balancing the effects of reforms, policy actions, external pressures and food prices.
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