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The diversification of electric platforms will determine the next phase in eMobility transformation
- 1Regulatory pressures remain high, while industries & regions compete to transform value creation in the powertrain industry
- 2To meet diverse relevant customer needs, future BEV powertrains require differentiated platforms
- 3Cell and eDrive innovations are expected to be competitive brand differentiators and far from a commodity
- 4Battery cells to remain key cost driver of the electric powertrain, heavily affected by raw material prices
- 5While we expect total cost of ownership parity across segments by 2025, powertrain cost parity will be reached from 2030
- 6By 2030, ~40% BEV vehicle sales share expected, moving towards 70% BEV share in 2040, resulting in ~6.5 TWh battery demand
- 7Companies across sectors should participate in the BEV gold rush, taking advantage of the transformation opportunities
Future electric vehicle portfolio
Since 2020, the powertrain portfolio has moved from technology openness towards a BEV-centric powertrain portfolio.
Customer relevant BEV platform specifications (2030)
Range variations
Customer perceived ranges in km
Charge speed
Charged range / 10 min
To meet differentiated customer needs, future BEV powertrains require tailor-made product platforms. The differentiation drivers are still range, power and charging speed. Battery and cell chemistry will be far from a commodity, but the key brand differentiator and competitive driver. Technological advancements in the eDrive system improve efficiency throughout the drive cycle and therefore reduce overall operating costs. Enhanced cooling allows brand differentiation in fast-charging solutions.
Battery costs are likely to remain main cost driver for future powertrains across all platforms. Especially cells comprise the majority of material costs.
Range will remain a key factor within platform specifications, and each will offer both standard and long ranges to meet differentiated flexibility needs.
Battery cells to remain key cost driver of the electric powertrain, heavily affected by raw material prices
Powertrain archetypes
Across the differentiated BEV platforms, customers have diverse buying criteria with regard to flexibility, dynamics, sustainability and operating costs. Diversified technological development in the ePowertrain of the future will probably enable OEMs to satisfy customer segments with diversified powertrains, enabling large-scale market diffusion.
Battery and cell chemistry are expected to be a key brand differentiator and competitive driver:
~+50%
Vehicle range increase1
~+100%
Charge speed increase1
~-25%
ePowertrain cost reduction2
1 Exemplary for prismatic NMC; 2 Exemplary for prismatic LFP
By 2025, improved total cost of ownership (TCO) due to scale effects and convenient charging infrastructure are expected to lead to BEV diffusion. In 2030, further TCO improvements as a result of enhanced battery technologies and efficient charging infrastructure are likely to consolidate the position of BEVs as the standard choice.
By 2030, around 40% of light vehicles globally will be based on a BEV platform and a 70% BEV share is expected by 2040. In the US, the IRA will accelerate BEV adoption, while in China, lower EV costs in relation to ICE will be significant. From 2030 to 2040, global battery demand is expected to nearly double to up to 6.5 TWh.
Electrification is moving from premium to entry segments, driven by customer demand. In 2030, a significant price gap between premium and entry-level BEVs will probably remain, with the middle segment widely adopting electrification. However, limited differentiation in electrification rates is anticipated across car segments.
Companies across sectors should participate in the BEV gold rush
Jan-Hendrik Bomke, Dr. Oliver Stump-Blesinger, Dr. Philipp Jehnichen and Dr. Patrick Treichel also contributed to this report.
