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Key findings
- 1Battery market High electrification rates and the ramp-up of EU cell production to ~900 GWh in 2030 will drive the EU recycling market up to ~6000 kt end-of-life batteries in 2040
- 2Regulatory drivers Following Asian regulation, the EU revised its regulatory environment in 2023 – among other things, requiring a recycling efficiency of 70% from 2031 onwards
- 3Recycling technology With a clear technological pathway and established supply chains, costs are expected to scale down by up to 50% for hubs operating at 40 kt and spokes at 10 kt
- 42030 EU recycling market outlook By 2030, we expect more than €2 bn in investments into the EU recycling market. Handling further market growth through to 2035 requires additional investments of €7 bn
- 5Implications Recycling will become a viable and sustainable business beyond regulatory pressure with projected ~€8 bn in revenue and potential reduction in battery cost
By 2030, ~40% of all light vehicles will be based on a BEV platform with over 3.4 TWh of battery demand
Global battery demand (GWh)
China
Europe
USA, Canada, Mexico
Rest of the world
By 2040, battery recycling in Europe is up 10-fold vs. 2030 – driven by gigafactory scrap initially
Between 2030 and 2040, we expect a 10-fold increase in share of recyclable material. A fast ramp-up from 2030 onwards will happen because the first wave of electrification will reach its end-of-life.
Development of recyclable material (in GWh, kt)
Between 2023 and 2030, the gigafactory scrap will drive the market. With scrap rates reducing significantly, it will comprise ~10% of the market in 2040. ~5,950 kt of end-of-life batteries in 2040 will drive the market.
Distribution of recyclable material (in GWh, kt)
Scrap
EoL batteries
Implications
- Recycled material contribute significantly
In 2035, recycled material may account for up to 30% of Li, Ni, and Co demand for battery cell production. The EU recycling targets are expected to be met, with only minor deviations.
- Economic motivation drives ramp-up
With ramped-up operations and increasing battery disposal, the recycling business is capable of building viable and sustainable profits for all value chain stakeholders. - Recycling potentially reduces CAM price
With more recyclate available at competitive cost, a positive impact on battery prices can be expected through reducing CAM price by up to 20%, further spurring electrification and recycling market uptake.
Jan-Hendrik Bomke, and Felix Ferk also contributed to this report.
This analysis was jointly developed with the "Production Engineering of E-Mobility Components" (PEM) chair at RWTH Aachen University. The authors would like to thank Prof. Dr.-Ing. Achim Kampker, Dr.-Ing. Christian Offermanns, Merlin Frank and Timon Elliger for the successful collaboration.
