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The mobility ecosystem is entering a fragmented future, with different adoption patterns and use cases by region
The tenth annual Digital Auto Report is a global consumer survey with a focus on the U.S., EU, China plus a new view on Japan. It consists of a quantitative market outlook until 2035 based on detailed research and interviews with key industry executives at OEMs and suppliers, leading academics and industry analysts.
The report is divided in three volumes:
(1) Assessing global mobility market dynamics
(2) Capturing value with new mobility business models (coming soon)
(3) Building software-defined vehicles and services (coming soon)
Rising market attention on sustainability and competitive pressure from maturing digital disruptors are heavily impacting auto executives’ strategy towards connected, electric, automated and smart mobility (volume 1)
- 97% of Chinese consumers want to change their mobility behavior to improve their CO2 footprint in comparison to 70% in Germany and 52% in the U.S. Switching to an electric vehicle is stated as preferred measure to achieve this in China and in the US whereas Germans would like to do more walking and cycling
- The total vehicle parc projections until 2035 stagnate in Europe (-0.6% p.a.) and Japan (-0.9% p.a.) vs. a marginal growth in the US (+1.3% p.a.) and stronger growth in China (+3.9% p.a.) which is driven by growing mobility demand, customer preferences for an own car and vehicle disposal rate
- Vehicle connectivity is advancing with 50% of total parc connected in Europe by 2025 (US by 2023, China by 2029). While OEMs are reaching a critical size with their connected service customer base, they still struggle with reliable service delivery at scale (over-the-air update functionality)
- E-mobility is at its inflection point in Europe driven by strong government incentives and regulations with 27% BEV share of new car sales in 2025 ahead of China (19%), US (6%) and Japan (5%). The slow charging infrastructure build-up will soon become the biggest growth hurdle
- The Automated driving outlook is similar to the previous year: in passenger transport, the technology will penetrate the market with a range of specific use cases that are difficult to scale
- Despite consumer reluctance to share vehicles or rides during the pandemic, smart mobility modes beyond vehicle ownership are expected to grow in the long-term
As the mobility ecosystem is adjusting to the new normal, many auto players will need to reboot their CASE strategies
Connected - Importance of on-demand car functions for consumers
Air condition activation
67%
78%
86%
Advanced headlight functions/ performance
59%
60%
70%
Extension of battery range (e.g. +80 km)
56%
59%
90%
Seat heating activation
49%
43%
56%
Increase of engine power (e.g. +50 hp)
45%
64%
79%
Traffic jam pilot
43%
33%
84%
Parking pilot
28%
23%
81%
Automated valet parking
24%
17%
69%
Automated - Willingness to pay for automated driving
84%
willingness
willingness
79%
willingness
willingness
98%
willingness
willingness
USD
0
16%
21%
2%
<1.2T
41%
34%
15%
1.2-2.4T
19%
23%
27%
2.4-3.6T
9%
7%
22%
3.6-4.7T
4%
4%
17%
4.7-5.9T
7%
4%
10%
5.9-7.1T
1%
2%
3%
>7.1T
3%
4%
3%
Smart Mobility - Mobility pattern after Covid-19 restrictions (%)
Own bike
By foot
Own car
Public transport
Shared micro-mobility (e.g. scooter)
Car-sharing
Taxi, Uber, ...
Electric - Deterring factors for using an electric car
66%
60%
58%
13%
59%
53%
56%
25%
73%
78%
28%
26%
Relatively high purchase price
Insufficient driving range with one battery charge
Limited choice and availability of cars
Concerned about sufficient charging options/stations
As the mobility ecosystem is adjusting to the new normal, many auto players will need to reboot their CASE strategies
Connected
Automated
Smart Mobility
Electric
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