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Expo 2020 is focusing on three central themes: sustainability, mobility, and the opportunity to improve residents quality of life. GCC countries are already investing massively in urban development, while creating sustainable and livable cities. The region can accelerate progress to these goals through increased focus on sustainable mobility by using a comprehensive framework for action.
Today, most transportation in the GCC, especially in urban environments, is centered around privately-owned cars, which constitute over 90 percent of all travel. The cost of car ownership in the GCC is less expensive than elsewhere because of subsidized fuel, low license costs, and favorable policies toward private cars. As such, car dependence has resulted in excessive pollution, traffic congestion, and economic costs. Globally, the transportation sector contributes about one-fourth of CO2 emissions in cities, according to the International Energy Agency.
While breaking dependence on the car will require investment, along with a new urban development mindset, it will also generate significant economic and social benefits. We estimate the potential value from GCC sustainable mobility to be roughly $400 billion over the next two decades because of lower spending on roads, reduced congestion, improved safety and energy efficiency, and greater productivity.
Capturing these benefits requires a five-part framework:
First, public transport systems are central. Governments should continue to invest in developing and enhancing these systems, with the ultimate objective of an accessible and fully electric fleet. For example, Saudi Arabia put approximately $22 billion into building the Riyadh metro, which will have capacity for millions of daily passengers. Trains will be driverless, operated through central command rooms. Stations will include Wi-Fi and generate power from solar arrays. Similarly, to alleviate Expo 2020 traffic, the Dubai government built Route 2020, a 15-kilometer metro extension.
Second, given the high car dependence, governments should make a concerted effort for electric vehicle (EV) adoption as part of a broader move to net zero emissions. The UAE has now become the first GCC country to commit to net zero by 2050 following its announcement on October 7, 2021. However, EVs are rare at present in the GCC due to a lack of financial incentives and scarce charging infrastructure. Incentives for adopting EVs, and disincentives such as emission charges, can change that. In Dubai, for example, the Roads and Transport Authority (RTA) now offers owners of EVs an exemption from some registration fees, dedicated parking spaces, and access to a widening network of charging stations that are built and funded by the Dubai Electricity and Water Authority. By 2050, Dubai projects that all its vehicles will be fully electric or hybrid.
Third, cities can use shared mobility to move commuters more efficiently, reduce reliance on personal vehicles, and increase riders per vehicle. The expansion of ride hailing players demonstrates that shared mobility works as a business model within a lightly-regulated market while improving asset utilization. Swvl is a good example. Originally founded in Egypt as a bus-hailing service, it now does ride-sharing. Swvl moved its headquarters to Dubai and expanded to include inter-city rides and corporate services. It is scheduled to go public on the Nasdaq in late 2021.
Fourth, soft mobility, including walking, bike-sharing, and e-scooters increases mobility options for city residents. This supplements public transit systems by solving first-mile and last-mile connectivity challenges.
Fifth, sustainable urban designs can change the flow of people and goods throughout a city, increasing walkability in residential areas and reducing dependence on private cars. The Line at NEOM in Saudi Arabia will not rely on cars. Instead, it is designed to ensure that daily needs—schools, clinics, leisure facilities, and green spaces—are within a five-minute walk.
To support this framework, governments should invest in enablers, such as infrastructure and technology. Sustainable mobility requires robust connectivity systems that collect real-time data from various modes, along with advanced analytics to improve understanding and prediction of traffic patterns, consumer trends, and emissions performance. To boost Expo 2020’s mobility management plans, RTA constructed an Enterprise Command and Control Center and an Intelligent Traffic Center. Both employ artificial intelligence, big data, advanced communication systems, and the Internet of Things to predict traffic patterns, support efficient decision-making, and enable multi-modal trip planning.
Another enabler is policies that encourage residents to change behaviors or transportation modes, and move to sustainable mobility. Cost-sharing initiatives between public and private entities—along with reinvesting revenues from traffic enforcement and demand-management measures, such as tolling or congestion-based fees—can fund the transportation network of the future.
As GCC governments focus on development and environmental improvements, adopting this framework and these enablers will make GCC cities safer, healthier, and more economically relevant for today’s residents and future generations. Expo 2020 is a venue to explore this exciting future.
This article originally appeared in Arabian Business, November 2021.
About the authors
Mark Haddad is a partner and Gustave A. Cordahi is a manager, with Strategy& Middle East, part of the PwC network.
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