E-commerce in Poland

Competition and rising expectations drive growth

Report

The report: ‘E-commerce in Poland: competition and Rising Expectations Drive Growth’ is a comprehensive summary of the domestic online sales market, emerging trends, current challenges, and potential for development. It presents a valuation of the e-commerce industry and a growth forecast for the coming years. In addition, comments from experts and representatives of leading companies in the market show the dynamics of the market and potential directions of change.

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Krzysztof Badowski
Managing Partner
Strategy& Poland

Maciej Kroenke
Partner
Strategy& Poland

In the face of changing macroeconomic factors, the Polish e-commerce market is experiencing a decline in projected growth levels relative to 2022 forecasts. The economic downturn and inflationary pressures in 2023 have caused the post-covid growth rate to wane. Despite an improvement in the consumer confidence index, Poles are looking at prices more frequently and managing their budgets more consciously.

At the same time, Poland's e-commerce market has matured, intensifying competition. The increase in sales volumes is due not only to the expansion of the channel but also to the intense competition between market players.

192 billion

this is how much the e-commerce market will be valued in 2028, with annual growth of 8% (CAGR)
52 billon

this is how much the market valuation will increase between 2024 and 2028
28%-60%

this is how much individual categories will grow between 2024 and 2028

Condition of the e-commerce market in Poland

There was strong market growth in 2020-2021 due to the COVID-19 pandemic and the closure of most stationary shops. In the following years 2022-2023, growth dynamics weakened, but slower volume growth was partially offset by high inflation. The market is expected to return to a trajectory of real volume growth over the next few years, with a decline in inflation.

Value of e-commerce sales in Poland¹ [billion PLN]

¹Current prices include VAT ² Market valuation for 2020-2021 differs from that given in Strategy& report 2022 due to the inclusion of other categories; see report for category details ³ Retail market in Poland excluding automotive in offline trade

Source: Strategy& estimates (based on expert interviews, Eurostat, NOBE, and selected information from PMR, Euromonitor, and Gemius)

E-commerce market user

Since the pandemic started, the number of online purchases in Poland has increased slightly, suggesting that the market has matured. Despite a slight increase in e-commerce users, some have started to buy in new categories, increasing the frequency of purchases and the average value of the basket. Polish consumers increasingly use online shopping, encouraged by payment and logistics solutions (greater availability of parcel machines, even in smaller towns). At the same time, the average basket value is partially increasing due to inflation.

The average number of purchases

+5%

2020 r.

2021 r.

2022 r.¹

2023 r.

_{¹ No data available for 2022, assumes linear growth between 2021 and 2023

Sources: Eurostat, CSO, Strategy& Analysis}

Average purchase value in PLN

+9%

2020 r.

2021 r.

2022 r.¹

2023 r.

Key trends shaping the e-commerce market

Development of marketplaces

The trend among large sellers in the Polish online trading market is to launch their marketplaces. This makes it easy to expand their offerings and attract customers, and is a good alternative for small players, eliminating the need to invest in their own platforms and providing an opportunity to exploit the potential of traffic acquired by the big players.

Omnichannel integration

Recent years indicate that strategic partnerships may be key in the marketplace. These include, in addition to developing marketplaces, establishing partnerships between players offering complementary services, such as q-commerce (quick commerce) providers and offline players.

International unification of platforms

GPlayers with international reach are investing in unifying their platforms (online shops and apps) with other countries in the group. These measures increase the chance of achieving higher margins by accessing foreign markets and ensuring that their business metrics are comparable; therefore, good business practices are more easily transferred between countries.

Automating and improving the Customer Experience

The increased competitiveness of the market creates the need to look for new sources of savings. Manifestations are investments in streamlining or simplifying processes - automation in the e-commerce platform or expanding warehouse infrastructure for order processing. Retailers are also declaring an increase in spending on UI/UX solutions and the personalization of the offer, highlighting the importance of improving the consumer experience in the development strategy of brands.

Development of m-commerce

The direction of e-commerce development depends on the industry. Some product categories (e.g., Home and Garden) still see a high share of stationary sales when finalizing the purchase path. In contrast, among others (e.g. Fashion), the online channel prevails. Nevertheless, the share of sales generated by mobile devices will grow by an average of 2 p.p. year-on-year in the coming years. Mobile channels have become the natural choice for consumers to search for products and browse shop offers.