Healthcare in Poland

The report: ‘Healthcare in Poland - Growth Potential and Opportunities for Investors’ provides a comprehensive summary of the domestic healthcare market, current challenges, and potential for development. It also presents a detailed comparison with markets in Western European countries and offers possible explanations for the differences.

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Challenges and opportunities in the health sector

The rapidly developing Polish healthcare industry is attracting more investors, as evidenced by the increasing number of transactions on the market. At the same time, it faces the challenges of staff shortages and rising operating costs of healthcare entities.

Krzysztof Badowski
Managing Partner
Strategy& Poland

In recent years, there has been a lot of transaction activity in the market as local and international investors recognize its high attractiveness and growth prospects. An important aspect is the consolidation of smaller facilities by the most significant private healthcare entities, which are keen to take over facilities in the outpatient specialist care and laboratory and imaging diagnostics segments, among others.

55%

of health expenditure is directed at people over 60 years of age
8,3%

is the projected cumulative annual growth rate of health expenditure in Poland between 2023 and 2028
3,1x

more deals made in the Polish healthcare market between 2019 and 2023 than between 2014 and 201between 2014 and 2018

Michał Sławuta
Senior Manager
Strategy& Poland

Grzegorz Orski
Senior Manager
Strategy& Poland

The convergence of the Polish economy to the European Union is positively influencing the development of many sectors, including healthcare.

Social and demographic trends, such as healthcare and an aging population, contribute to increased demand for medical services and higher government spending on healthcare.

The Polish healthcare market will reach a value of PLN 191 billion in 2023, with an average annual growth rate forecast at 8.3% between 2023 and 2028, mainly due to increasing public spending.

Selected findings from the report

Critical trends in healthcare markets

Trends currently observed in Polish society have and will continue to impact the functioning of the health market. The most significant trends include:

An ageing population

The long-term impact will be increased demand for medical services in geriatrics, rheumatology, orthopedics, oncology, cardiology, or long-term care.

Increasing prevalence of chronic diseases

The diseases with the most significant projected increase in incidence are diabetes and cardiovascular diseases (including hypertension).

Increasing affluence

Greater affluence will result in increased healthcare spending, particularly in the private sector, and dynamic growth in aesthetic medicine and long-term care segments.

Increased awareness of proactive self-care

Increased willingness of Poles to consult a doctor, including for preventive care.

Increased awareness of healthy lifestyles

Initiatives related to physical activity, mental health, and a healthy diet, which may reduce the incidence of selected diseases in the future, are accompanied by increased interest in this topic.

State of the market and its various segments

The Polish healthcare system is distinguished by a smaller number of general practitioners (GPs) but a more significant number of specialists than in Western Europe. Some health systems in Western countries operate on a different model, in which the general practitioner (GP) has more competence, so there is less need to refer patients to specialists, which also impacts queue length.

Number of doctors, 2021, per 100,000 people

General practitioners

-12%*

Specialists

+8%*

Western Europe¹⁾

Poland

Central and Eastern Europe²⁾

1) Germany, France, Denmark, Netherlands, Belgium, Austria, Switzerland, Sweden, Finland, Norway;
2) Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Czech Republic, Hungary, Romania; Source: Eurostat, OECD, Strategy& analysis.
*In Poland in relation to Western Europe.

The average per capita expenditure on healthcare in Poland is 57% lower than in Western Europe (2022), and the number of doctors and nurses does not meet market needs. Among specialists, we have the most significant access to otolaryngologists and endocrinologists; the most minor accessible are geriatricians and psychiatrists.

Potential solutions to reduce the doctor shortage include increasing the tariffing of services and raising the number of doctors training for particular specialties. The spread of preventive care in Poland may contribute to reducing expenditures on interventional treatment and avoiding some deaths.

Number of doctors and nurses, 2021, per 100,000 people

Doctors

-20%*

Nurses

-52%*

Western Europe¹⁾

Poland

Central and Eastern Europe²⁾

1) Germany, France, Denmark, Netherlands, Belgium, Austria, Switzerland, Sweden, Finland, Norway;
2) Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Czech Republic, Hungary, Romania
Źródło: OECD, Eurostat, WHO, CSO, Health Needs Maps, Strategy& analysis

Availability of selected specialist doctors in Poland, 2022, 1 = value recommended by national medical consultants

Investment potential of the medical sector

Although the Polish healthcare market faces challenges, local and international investors recognize its high attractiveness and growth prospects. This can be evidenced, among other things, by the more than 8 percent increase in healthcare spending between 2023 and 2028. Despite significantly higher spending on public healthcare, the projected growth is more robust in the private sector.

Health expenditure in Poland, excluding drug reimbursements, 2018-2028F, PLN billion

1) Public expenditure estimated based on the National Health Fund (NFZ) financial plan, without taking into account additional funds from the state budget
Source: OECD, Eurostat, CSO (GUS), Strategy& analysis.

Rapid growth is likely to be observed in the segments of hospital care, outpatient specialized care (AOS), primary health care (POZ), rehabilitation, and psychiatry. An increase in funding for long-term care and preventive health care is also expected, while Poland's extremely low spending on laboratory tests indicates high growth potential for diagnostics.

It is worth noting that, compared to Europe, the Polish healthcare sector is characterized by a high level of digitalization and intelligent solutions, which include the Internet Patient Account (IKP), e-prescriptions, e-referrals, tele-referrals, remote monitoring systems, and Electronic Medical Record. This creates an excellent basis for further investment in the digitalization of the market.

Value-Based Healthcare (VBH), which focuses on maximizing the health outcome, i.e., the quality and efficiency of treatment, rather than maximizing the economic outcome, is increasingly gaining ground. Activities related to coordinated care, performance monitoring, reform of the financing model, systems integration, and IT infrastructure development are the areas with high investment potential.